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1 outlets · filed 30 October 2026

Polymarket and Kalshi Face a Major Accuracy Test: The Midterms

This story is from the archive. It was covered between 30 October 2026 and 30 October 2026, and nothing below has been updated since. See what is happening now.

Studies have shown that the betting sites can predict races correctly, but their ability to forecast U.S. midterm elections is an important proving ground.

What the coverage shows

The New York Times frames Polymarket and Kalshi as facing a test of their forecasting record in the midterms, while Fox News instead leads with a GOP midterm test and tightening Senate races. The two outlets overlap only loosely on midterm competitiveness and Senate battlegrounds, but Fox News does not foreground the betting sites at all. The Times alone explicitly centers the prediction markets as the subject of the coverage.

Written by Crossfiled from the 1 headlines and extracts below, not from the articles themselves. It describes how the outlets framed this, not what happened. Open any headline for a summary of that article.

New York Times

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